The bitcoin price has climbed back above $20,000 per bitcoin, with ethereum and other top ten cryptocurrencies surging along with it, though they all remain far from their all-time highs. Tesla billionaire and new owner of Twitter Elon Musk has meanwhile given a sudden boost to his favorite cryptocurrency.
Now, after Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary issued a huge S&P 500 bitcoin and crypto prediction, new analysis has shown the bitcoin price could return to its all-time highs of over $60,000 sooner than previously thought.
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“Prices started to rally 15 months before the next halving (November 2022) and they tend to finish 39% from where they traded 24 months prior. This would imply that bitcoin trades around $63,160 (March 2022 at $45,538*(1+39%) = $63,160) by March 2024,” Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at $10 billion asset manager and crypto company Matrixport, wrote in a note seen by Coindesk.
The bitcoin price prediction is based on historical price data ahead of the July 2016 and April 2020 bitcoin halvings that saw the number of new bitcoin rewarded to those that secure the bitcoin network and confirm transactions, known as miners, cut by half.
Extrapolating that historical data shows the bitcoin price could climb to just over $63,00 as soon as March 2024, up by almost 40% from its March 2022 price of just over $45,000.
A recent increase in bitcoin’s hash rate—a measure of the computing power directed towards the bitcoin network by miners—has brought the next halving date forward to March 2024 from May 2024 previously. Following the 2024 halving—bitcoin’s fourth supply cut—miners will receive just over three bitcoin per block.
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Thielen also pointed to “signals that China is changing its stance towards crypto,” following Russia changing “its stance in light of the economic sanctions,” and naming Saudi Arabia as a third country that could turn to bitcoin, crypto and the decentralized, blockchain-based web3 as an “alternative to the U.S. dollar system.”
In the meantime, bitcoin, ethereum and crypto traders are looking for signs of support around $20,000.
“In the short term, bitcoin may still need to shrug off the disappointment from the stock market, but the level around the $19,500 will likely be a support for the price for two reasons,” Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Bitbank, wrote in an emailed note.
“First, bitcoin’s breakout from last week’s narrow range was accompanied by a substantial rise in trading volume, which, from a technical perspective, is a reliable breakout. Second, as pointed out earlier this week, put option buyers of the $20,000 strike could lift the spot bitcoin price below that level to secure profit.”