So far, the crypto market has had a wild year. Many events have occurred in the past few months, including the halving of large altcoins and the bankruptcy of crypto exchanges.

There has been speculation regarding the future of cryptocurrencies in 2023 and whether they will be bullish or bearish. Instead, let’s explore potential trends for the New Year, as it is impossible to predict the future.

There has finally been a recovery

Analysts believe the crypto market will recover in 2023. By the end of the year, the bulk of the bear market will be behind us; however, a full bull market, going by bitcoin price history, is not guaranteed.

Some believe the bottom will be reached in the first quarter of 2023, with bitcoin falling to $10,000 or lower. These price declines might cause most altcoins to decline by 60% to 80%.

The price of Cardano may drop to around 10 cents. This might be an opportunity for those who want to buy or a signal that its reputation as the Ethereum killer has ended.

Watch out for the first quarter

According to predictions, the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates in the first quarter of next year. This may stop the crypto bear market from crashing any further. BTC could bottom at around $10,000 or even lower. The stock market, highly correlated to the crypto market, is expected to drop another 20-30% before bottoming out.

Bitcoin, however, may still experience a flash crash below $10,000. Many factors could be causing this, like an energy shortage, a ban on bitcoin mining, and a lack of liquidity. Keeping your crypto assets in your crypto wallet is better than storing them on a centralized exchange.

As the market grows, the phrase “not your keys, not your coins” will become more relevant.

There is a good chance that the SEC will crack down on another big crypto project, company, or exchange in 2023. This is due to the negative events of the current year and the ongoing effects of FTX. Solana’s price has plummeted, so projects are moving to Polygon instead.

Gensler is coming: a new crypto company

Whatever the case, another crackdown seems inevitable as long as Gary Gensler is chairman. The term of Gensler ends in 2026, so he’s got plenty of time. If he doesn’t get expelled from the SEC for his close encounter with Sam Bankman-Fried, it’s another story.

Every cryptocurrency besides Bitcoin is a target. Since almost every crypto exchange and platform offers cryptocurrencies besides bitcoin, they’re also potential targets. The crackdown could trigger new crypto lows in the first quarter.

More regulation is needed

There will be a lot of crypto regulations in 2023. There will probably be a lot of good regulations, but a few bad ones. The crypto rules are likely to vary from region to region, even if there are global crypto rules. However, the collapse of FTX might finally lead to regulation.

A little right, a little crappy — that’s fine

A lack of regulatory clarity has made regulators wary of investing in crypto, especially altcoins. US, EU, and elsewhere rules could result in inflows, contributing to a Q1 recovery.

Decentralizing crypto projects will be made easier by crypto regulations. The only way to avoid many of these regulations is to be decentralized from top to bottom, which is what crypto is supposed to be about.

Most people agree that regulation is generally good, but some crypto regulations may be detrimental. The worst rules are payments, DeFi, privacy, and possibly self-custody. Bad crypto regulations may slow down DeFi adoption. Since Defi’s protocols are decentralized, they have not been included in most crypto regulations.

The adoption of crypto will grow

There will be an increase in the number of cryptocurrency holders in 2023, and Cryptocurrencies have been adopted by about 4% of the global population. Although growth has been exponential, there are many reasons why it will continue to grow.

Facebook and Instagram, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are currently testing many smart contract cryptocurrencies. Starbucks has even developed a Polygon loyalty program built on NFTs.

Further, free speech social media platforms such as Telegram and Signal have begun incorporating many crypto features into their platforms. As well, Elon Musk has confirmed that Twitter will also integrate crypto. Together, these companies have billions of users, and it would be significant if even a small percentage of their users adopted crypto.

It’s that simple. For 2023, there are no predictions, but there are some trends to keep an eye on.

McClatchy newsroom and editorial staff were not involved in the creation of this content.